G’day, financial markets are catching their breath today after a volatile start to the week. The ASX 200 rebounded by 1.0% following news that a planned US military strike in the Middle East had been delayed, offering temporary relief to energy-anxious investors.

Let’s dive in.

What's going on here: The ASX 200 rebounded by 1.0% to 8,594 points, recovering from a 1.5% drop on Monday. The turnaround came after US President Trump announced a "very good chance" of a peace deal and delayed a planned military strike on Iran. Energy stocks and gold miners led the gains.

Why should I care: While the delay offers temporary relief to financial markets, underlying volatility remains high. Investors are still on edge regarding broader oil-driven inflation risks ahead of the RBA’s May meeting minutes release.

What's going on here: ASX-listed pallet giant Brambles (BXB) crashed 20% to a 12-month low, marking its worst single day of trading in more than two decades. The company slashed its FY26 profit growth outlook from 8–11% down to 3–5%, blaming a US$60 million hit from repair capacity bottlenecks in its US network.

Why should I care: Even a fresh US$400 million share buyback failed to calm investor fears. The massive sell-off dragged the broader industrials sector down 4% on Monday and leaves Brambles shares down 23% so far in 2026.

What's going on here: With Brent crude hovering near $110 a barrel, UNSW economists are warning that Australia faces a genuine risk of stagflation—the painful economic mix of stagnant growth and rising prices.

Why should I care: Higher fuel costs act as a tax on everything, driving up the costs of grocery deliveries and airfares. Because the RBA cannot fix supply-side global oil shocks by raising interest rates, households are caught in the crossfire of both higher everyday prices and higher mortgage repayments.

What's going on here: CBA economists have downgraded their December 2026 dwelling price growth forecast from 5% to 3%. This follows the budget’s decision to axe negative gearing on established properties purchased after Budget night (12 May).

Why should I care: CBA estimates the policy will wipe roughly $30,000 off the value of a typical investment property, dealing investors the equivalent of a 0.9% to 1.55% mortgage rate hike. Because new builds remain exempt, expect a major investor shift toward off-the-plan purchases.

What's going on here: Australia’s national diesel reserves have dwindled to just 33 days—well below international benchmarks. The shortage comes as global oil prices have doubled since early 2026 due to US-Iran tensions and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why should I care: The crisis extends far beyond the gas pump. Energy Minister Bowen confirmed 57 fuel ships are en route through month-end, but transport operators warn that sustained high diesel prices could force up to 70% of truck drivers out of business, severely threatening national food supply chains.

What's going on here: Starting 1 July 2026, a newly legislated reform will require employers to pay superannuation contributions at the exact same time they pay regular wages, ending the traditional quarterly payment cycle. Super contributions will also be introduced for paid parental leave.

Why should I care: This shift is designed to catch and stop billions of dollars in unpaid superannuation. While the core Superannuation Guarantee (SG) rate remains steady at 12%, high-wealth individuals should note that balances over $3 million will face a 30% earnings tax, climbing to 40% for balances over $40 million.

What's going on here: Analysts predict that the budget's scale-back of negative gearing could prompt a massive structural shift in wealth. Currently, 37% of affluent Australians own investment property, compared to a global peer-country average of just 32%.

Why should I care: By disincentivising property investing, billions of dollars are expected to pivot into liquid financial assets. Experts believe Australia could become one of the hottest global markets for shares and ETFs over the next three years as locals adopt more traditional international investment patterns.

What's going on here: Minutes from the RBA's May meeting revealed an 8-1 vote to lift the cash rate to 4.35%—the third hike in 2026. The board acknowledged it is "tightening into a slowdown," but deemed it necessary to anchor inflation expectations threatened by Middle East oil shocks.

Why should I care: Borrowers need to prepare for more pain, as markets are now pricing in a 75% probability of another rate hike in August. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that soaring fuel costs could spill into general consumer prices faster and more extensively than initially expected.

What's hiding in the $1,000 instant tax deduction: Tax experts warn the new no-receipt $1,000 deduction (benefiting 6.2m workers with an average saving of $205) quietly removes the existing $300 substantiation exemption and repeals the $150 laundry concession. Workers who claim more than $1,000 in genuine expenses could actually be worse off under the new rules. The actual cash saving depends on your marginal tax rate — high earners save the most.

$20,000 instant asset write-off made permanent and loss carry-back returns: Small businesses with turnover under $10 million will permanently be able to immediately deduct asset purchases up to $20,000, saving the sector $32m a year in compliance and 366,000 hours of record-keeping. The loss carry-back scheme is also reintroduced from 2026-27, letting companies with under $1bn turnover offset current-year losses against tax paid over the prior two years — a key lifeline during the oil shock slowdown.

Sydney and Melbourne prices turn negative but Perth and Brisbane still surging: NAB's May Housing Monitor shows national dwelling prices rose just 0.3% in April — the softest monthly gain in over a year. Sydney and Melbourne each fell 0.6% for the month, with Sydney down 3.7% on a three-month annualised basis. Yet Perth continues to lead with 2.1% monthly growth and 26% over the year. National values remain 9.8% higher year-on-year with a median value near $940,000.